And there goes the future

I, along with a lot of Yankees fans, have not been that impressed with the offseason wheelings and dealings. I'll leave the majority of the analysis to those better suited, but I'd like to consider another potential long-term problem besides throwing tons of money at overpaid, declining players.

Every offseason in the past 8 years or so, whether they win the World Series or lose it, the Yankees have reloaded through free agency or trades where they take on contracts other teams either couldn't afford or decided weren't worth the risk. In doing so, they've traded away just about every prospect in their frighteningly thin system. Almost none of those prospects (save Mike Lowell and hopefully Nick Johnson) have done that much, so the loss may not be that great. However, the core of the team, home-grown stars like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and especially Bernie Williams, are getting older and starting to decline. The players they've brought in, like A-Rod, Matsui and Sheffield, have kept the team competitive. Even if they manage to keep finding the players necessary to win 90+ games a year, I wonder if there will be any effect on attendance when the core of the team is no longer primarily home-grown.

I have a theory, although I haven't figured out how to test it, that fans are more likely to root for a home-grown team, all other things being equal. I think tracking players throughout the minor and watching them break in creates more of an interest. Of course, you can't often break in a bunch of young players at once and expect to maintain a chance at a championship. A safer course of action would be to rotate in one or two younger players a season, to revitalize the team (and to strengthen a connection to the fans for another 6 seasons) without risking a pennant run. It makes even more sense if the younger player can be almost as effective as the veteran he'd replace. To apply this rationale to this season's team, this would suggest giving the 2b job to Robinson Cano rather than Tony Womack.